KEY INSIGHTS FOR ganganagar (2)

PoliticalEDGE

Past Results


2018 Assembly Election
Name	Party	Votes	Percent
PR SUDHAKAR LAL	JD(S)	73979	43.2%
Y.H. HUCHHAIAH	BJP	12190	7.1%
	Polled Votes - 86169	Total Votes - 171310	Polling - 50.3%


2013 Assembly Election
Name	Party	Votes	Percent
SUDHAKARA LAL PR	JD(S)	72229	47.4%
DR. G. PARAMESHWARA	INC	54074	35.5%
PEDDARAJU	BJP	3088	2%
CHANDRAIAH	KJP	15738	10.3%
	Polled Votes - 145129	Total Votes - 152446	Polling - 95.2%


2019 Parliament Election
Name	Party	Votes	Percent
H.D. DEVEGOWDA	JD(S)	77120	48.5%
G.S. BASAVARAJ	BJP	72857	45.8%
	Polled Votes - 149977	Total Votes - 159042	Polling - 94.3%

Party Preference

AT PRESENT, INC IS LEADING COMFORTABLY by ~10% OVER JD(S).
BJP ALSO ISN’T TOO FAR BEHIND JD(S) AND TRAIL ONLY BY ~6% TO JD(S).
IN COMPARISON TO LAST ROUND, BJP SEEMS TO HAVE LOST 3%-4% AND JD(S) GAINED SIMILAR NUMBERS.
INC HAS GAINED MAJORLY FROM THE UNDECIDED VOTE BANK WHICH WAS AROUND 12% AND NOW AT 4.3%. MAJORITY OF THIS SECTION HAS MOVED TOWARDS INC TO BUMP UP ITS SHARE FROM 33% TO 40%.
BUT WE STILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS WITH BJP MAINTAINING ITS VOTE BASE AND OVERALL SENTIMENT OF THE STATE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT IN LAST 6 MONTHS.

PERFORMANCE OF STATE GOVT. AND MLA

THE LINEAR LINES TELL US
THAT OVERALL RATING FOR
DR. PARAMESHWARA IS
BETTER THAN THAT OF
STATE GOVERNMENT WHICH
IS BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR DR. PARAMESHWARA AS
WELL, THE RATING FOR
DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHER
THAN THAT OF IMAGE

Caste

AS COMPARED TO EARLIER ROUND, INC
HAS GAINED IMMENSELY IN THE
MUSLIM CATEGORY BY 15%
THE OTHER SEGMENT WHERE GAINS
CAN BE SEEN ARE THE ST / NAYAKA
COMMUNITY.
THE VARIATIONS IN OTHERS WILL NOT
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AS THEIR
VOTE BASE IS SMALL

Age Group

INC HAS GAINED IN THE FIRST TIME
VOTER SEGMENT ON THE EXPENSE OF
JD(S)
THE TREND FOR INC REMAINS THE
SAME – SUPPORT DECREASES WITH
AGE WHICH IS QUITE COUNTER
INTUITIVE.
NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS AS BJP WILL
TARGET THE YOUTH WHICH IS
ANYWAYS VULNERABLE. THAT COULD
HAVE HUGE IMPACT.

Occupation

INC HAS SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE
AMONGST THE HOUSEWIFE SEGMENT.
AGAIN, A VOTER SEGMENT BJP WILL
TRY AND SNATCH.
GOVT. EMPLOYEES ALSO FAVOUR INC
STRONGLY.
NEED TO WORK ON THE BIG BUSINESS
AND PROFESSIONAL – THOUGH THEY
ARE A SMALL VOTE SEGMENT BUT
INFLUENTIAL.
THE NUMBERS IN THE UNEMPLOYED
SECTION CAN BE INCREASED WITH A
SMART CAMPAIGN.

Education

AS THE EDUCATION LEVELS OF THE
VOTERS GET BETTER, INC LOSES ITS
SUPPORT.NE
ED TO FOCUS ON GRADUATE PEOPLE
THROUGH SOME ON-GROUND AND
ONLINE CAMPAIGNS.
ITS COMPLETELY OTHER WAY ROUND
FOR BJP. THIS IS WHERE THEY ARE
MAKING THE INROADS. THEREFORE, IT IS
IMPORTANT TO TACKLE THIS SEGMENT.

PARTY WORKER ACTIVITY AND GENDER PREFERENCE

INC HAS SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE AMONGST WOMEN VOTERS - ~4% WHILE FOR OTHER TWO PARTIES ITS -2%

PARTY WORKER ACTIVITY ARE MORE OR LESS ON THE SAME LINES AS THE PARTY PREFERENCE.

SWOT AND BOOTH CATEGORIZATION

AS COMPARED TO LAST ROUND, INC HAS RECOVERED WELL IN 30-35 BOOTHS. THE STRONG AND ABOVE AVERAGE BOOTHS HAVE RISEN FROM JUST 59 TO 93. BELOW AVERAGE BOOTHS HAVE REDUCED A LOT.